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TEN Best Pix for 2010 Oscars??

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saturnwatcher View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote saturnwatcher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: TEN Best Pix for 2010 Oscars??
    Posted: June 28 2009 at 1:00am

Again, you really didn't address the issue, MWG. AMPAS is going to nominate 10 movies, but that doesn't invalidate the suggestion some of us made that they probably won't find 10 worthy movies. Since that is the topic at hand, your prediction becomes a de facto endorsement of those movies. The decision to nominate 10 movies makes the whole process more of a farce than it already is, and creates a high probability that a movie that doesn't have much support is going to win regularly. Evidently, AMPAS has more or less invalidated the legitimacy of their own preliminary nominating ballots.

In any event, there is exactly zero difference between anyone on this board predicting that a movie will be bad, and you predicting that a movie will be good.

Nine times out of ten, in art as in life, there is no truth to be discovered, only an error to be exposed.--H.L. Menken
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Post Options Post Options   Quote moviewizguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2009 at 4:41pm

Originally posted by Head RAZZberry

Everyone (with the possible exception of moviewizeguy) has tacitly acknowledged that the the main point of expanding this year's Best Picture Oscar race to 10 titles was to accommodate "popcorn movies" as well as the "art-house" titles which have tended to dominate the Academy Awards for at least the last decade... 

Seeing how they did expand the nominations, I still wouldn't think Star Trek would get in. If there had been 10 noms last year, I would find it petty hard to believe Iron Man would be nominated. Even though I found Iron Man to be better than Doubt, I believe Doubt would have been nominated over Iron Man. That was my logic.

Also, your retort to JoBloMovieGoer doesn't address the issue he raised -- How is your presuminmg something is "Oscar caliber" sight unseen any more defensible than Forum members predicting something is a contender for our awards, usually based on at least seeing promotional materials for the film being discussed? At least half of the films you listed earlier are not only months away from release, some of them are actually still in production -- In other words, you obviously can't have seen even a single frame of footage from any of them, yet you seem to have already formed an opinion about them...

Oh, come on. This argument is ridiculous! Of course I may sound like a hypocrite but this is just predictions. I'm not saying the movies are good. I'm just predicting which movies would be released. I was addressing to the people who believe that there aren't going to be 10 very good movies to be nominated. I gave them 10 movies that could possibly get nominated, having them think, "Hey. Well, I may be wrong. There really might be 10 good movies this year that can be nominated."

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Post Options Post Options   Quote saturnwatcher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 4:35pm
Originally posted by Michaels

 This is why I sugguested they divide the catagory into drama and comedy. That way, the most deserving drama can win, as well as a crowd pleasing blockbuster.

 

I have a problem with splitting the categories because there is simply too much gray area between what is comedy and what is drama. The Best Picture award should be just that...the year's best movie regardless of category. However, AMPAS has managed to step up to the plate and come up with the most ridiculous possible solution to a problem that really didn't exist in the first place.

Nine times out of ten, in art as in life, there is no truth to be discovered, only an error to be exposed.--H.L. Menken
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dEd Grimley Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 12:28pm
Here's my top 10:

Paul Blart
Bride Wars
Inkheart
Life is Hot in Cracktown
Notorious
Crank: High Voltage
Race to Witch Mountain
The Unborn
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
The Taking of Pelham 123
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Post Options Post Options   Quote moviewizguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 12:09pm

What am I doing that is wrong? People always predict what's going to be nominated for the Oscars, even though some have not been released yet. *sigh*



 

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Post Options Post Options   Quote moviewizguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 12:06pm

I actually rated Star Trek a 10/10. It's an excellent film but I didn't put it on my list because I don't think the Academy will nominate it. They usually never nominate these type of movies. And by "these type," I meant popcorn movies that the majority enjoyed. 

RESPONSE from Head RAZZberry: Everyone (with the possible exception of moviewizeguy) has tacitly acknowledged that the the main point of expanding this year's Best Picture Oscar race to 10 titles was to accommodate "popcorn movies" as well as the "art-house" titles which have tended to dominate the Academy Awards for at least the last decade... 

Also, your retort to JoBloMovieGoer doesn't address the issue he raised -- How is your presuminmg something is "Oscar caliber" sight unseen any more defensible than Forum members predicting something is a contender for our awards, usually based on at least seeing promotional materials for the film being discussed? At least half of the films you listed earlier are not only months away from release, some of them are actually still in production -- In other words, you obviously can't have seen even a single frame of footage from any of them, yet you seem to have already formed an opinion about them...

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Post Options Post Options   Quote moviewizguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 12:04pm

It's called a prediction. Duh.

Originally posted by JoBloMovieGoer

Once again, moviewizeguy is engaging in behaviors he has endlessly (and falsely) criticized other Forum members for: Only one of the titles he listed above as supposed Best Picture contenders has even been released yet (let alone completed production). He can't possibly have seen even 10% of the films he is, in essence, endorsing as 2009's very best -- Pardon me for asking, but doesn't that consitute "pre-judging movies sight unseen"?


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Post Options Post Options   Quote Michaels Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 10:07am

I agree with what saturnwatcher said. If there's ten movies, chances are the catagory will be watered down to the point that the most deserving movie is not going to win at all. This is why I sugguested they divide the catagory into drama and comedy. That way, the most deserving drama can win, as well as a crowd pleasing blockbuster.

As for MWG's picks, most of which haven't even be released to the public, unless you can illlegal downloading, well much like the Joker from "TDK", MWG doesn't have a plan when it comes to posting on this board, he just does things.

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Post Options Post Options   Quote saturnwatcher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 5:17am
Originally posted by moviewizguy

If two or three movies are close to winning, wouldn't one of those three movies win, since people are voting for them and not for another undeserved or inferior movie?

Not necessarily. Consider this scenario: Movie A and Movie B are the front runners for the Oscar. Suppose that there are 100 voters. Of those 100, 28 people consider Movie A to the the best movie and Movie B to be the second best. Movie B is the favorie among 27 voters who regard movie A as second best.  Movie C has sort of a cult appeal which will get it a lot of votes, but the majority consider it a distant 3rd and almost nobody likes Nominees D or E that much. So, Movie A gets 28 votes. Movie B gets 27 votes...had either one of those not been in the running, it would have garnered all 55 or nearly all 55 of the votes cast.. However, Movie C pulls in 30 votes...less than a third of the total and well over half of the voters don't like it all that much...still, it manages to win Best Picture simply because two better movies split the vote and the other 15 votes are divided among D and E. I suspect that this precise scenario has played out at least twice before, and may have been a factor in both Rocky and The Greatest Show on Earth receiving Best Picture honors.

Nine times out of ten, in art as in life, there is no truth to be discovered, only an error to be exposed.--H.L. Menken
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Post Options Post Options   Quote saturnwatcher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 5:09am
It rather seems to me that if Hollywood has been engaged in several months of embarrased throat clearing over the fact that The Dark Knight  didn't get nominated for Best Picture, the remedy to the situation is to extensively review their nominating proceedures, not to adopt the National Hockey League model by permitting everyone who is still breathing at the end of the season to participate in the playoffs. Look for this format to end quickly when a couple of really bad movies end up winning the Oscar. Not that it hasn't already happened, but AMPAS is codifying a process that will guarantee it to occur regularly...  
Nine times out of ten, in art as in life, there is no truth to be discovered, only an error to be exposed.--H.L. Menken
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Post Options Post Options   Quote HeadRAZZBerry Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 3:34am

RESPONSE from Head RAZZberry: I am disappointed (though not surprised) that moviewizeguy omitted from his list of possible Best Picture contenders the one 2009 film that is most analogous to last year's most blatantly over-looked title (and the film many people in the industry believe directly led to the new "10 Nominees" rule-- DARK KNIGHT).  I am speaking, of course, about the movie that is (as of this posting) both 2009's biggest-grossing movie and one of its best reviewed: STAR TREK.

FYI: Here is a LINK to see B.O. MoJo's list of 2009's top-grossers, and a LINK to check out Rotten Tomatoes' compilation of the year's highest critically-rated titles...

 

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Post Options Post Options   Quote JoBloMovieGoer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 3:22am

Once again, moviewizeguy is engaging in behaviors he has endlessly (and falsely) criticized other Forum members for: Only one of the titles he listed above as supposed Best Picture contenders has even been released yet (let alone completed production). He can't possibly have seen even 10% of the films he is, in essence, endorsing as 2009's very best -- Pardon me for asking, but doesn't that consitute "pre-judging movies sight unseen"??

 

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Post Options Post Options   Quote moviewizguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 3:02am

Here ate some possible Best Picture choices for 2009:


The Road
Nine
Public Enemies
UP
Shutter Island
The Lovely Bones
Avatar
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea
The Invention of Lying

Honorable mention: Julie and Julia

And I don't get your second reason. If two or three movies are close to winning, wouldn't one of those three movies win, since people are voting for them and not for another undeserved or inferior movie? 


Originally posted by saturnwatcher

The first thing that came to my mind, as Michaels pointed out, is how are they going to find 10 movies worthy of nomination. The second problem is one that I've noted before that will become more accute: The best picture is almost certain not to win, particularly if there is a fairly close race between 2 or 3 really good movies. Those films are going to split the vote and a much less well regarded film is probably going to win every year.

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Post Options Post Options   Quote saturnwatcher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2009 at 2:28am

The first thing that came to my mind, as Michaels pointed out, is how are they going to find 10 movies worthy of nomination. The second problem is one that I've noted before that will become more accute: The best picture is almost certain not to win, particularly if there is a fairly close race between 2 or 3 really good movies. Those films are going to split the vote and a much less well regarded film is probably going to win every year.

Nine times out of ten, in art as in life, there is no truth to be discovered, only an error to be exposed.--H.L. Menken
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dEd Grimley Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2009 at 11:40am
Ugh... let's not open THAT can of worms.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Michaels Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2009 at 8:56am

A "Mr. T Fact" perhaps?

 

"Just once I want my life to be like an 80's movie ... but, no, no. John Hughes did not direct my life." ("Easy A", 2010)
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